Dr. Henry G. Mwambi,  Senior Lecturer of Statistics and Biometry

University of KwaZulu-Natal

School of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Private Bag X01, Pietermaritzburg 3209, South Africa.

Room: F21, Science Building

Office Tel: +27-(033)-2605614

Office Fax: +27-(033)-2605648

email: mwambih@ukzn.ac.za


1989        Tutorial Fellow, Dept of Mathematics, University of Nairobi, Kenya

1996        Lecturer, Dept Mathematics, University of Nairobi, Kenya

2001        Lecturer, Department of Statistics and Biometry, University of Natal, PMB, S. Africa

2005-       Senior Lecturer, School of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, S. Africa


I have taught both theory and applied statistics courses at both undergraduate and post-graduate levels. My main application areas are in the biological and health sciences particularly modeling population and disease dynamics. In the University of Natal and now kwaZulu-Natal, I have taught theory and applied courses among them a Biostatistics course at both undergraduate and graduate levels covering key areas in biostatistics namely general epidemiology principles, cohort studies, case-control studies, survival analysis and clinical trials. My main research area is on statistical and mathematical modeling and analysis of infectious disease processes at the individual and population level. I am currently working with PhD and Masters students on various topics in biostatistics and epidemiology such as the analysis of non-Gaussian longitudinal and clustered disease outcome data, survival analysis, modeling recurrent event longitudinal data with reference to epilepsy, and infectious disease modeling. Some of the students I have supervised are now employed as Biostatisticians in leading medical and bioinformatics research within South Africa and abroad.


Regular Visiting Associate Member of the ICTP, Trieste Italy

Visiting Research Fellow of the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in the periods: July 1995-July 1996 & May 1998

December 1998

DAAD PhD Visiting Student, University of Tuebingen, Germany: October 1994 – March 1995

DAAD Post-PhD Research Visiting Fellow, University of Tuebingen: April 1999 – April 1999

Fellow for the International Centre for Research in Agroforestry (ICRAF): March 2000 – February 2001

Visiting Fellow Princeton University, Cleveland Dodge Fellowship: January 2001 – May 2001

Visiting Scholar, Lumburgs University, Belgium: January 2005.

Visiting Scientist Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Dec 2005 – Feb 2006

Joint Eskom Excellence Award on HIV/AIDS Research (2004)

Lecturer of the year award for 2006 (UKZN, Pietermaritzburg campus.)

Guest Lecturer to teach a topic on Confounding and Interaction (in epidemiology) to a MPH (Masters in Public Health) class in 2003. Invited by Tonya Esterhuizen (Biostatistician and Senior Lecturer – Nelson Mandela Medical School, UKZN.)

Current (2008) – Visiting short-term Scholar at the Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health, Department of Biostatistics in Baltimore, USA.


Member of the International Biometric Society (IBS) since 1996

Member of the Sub-Saharan Network (SUSAN) of the IBS since 1997

Member of the South African Statistical Association (since 2001)

Member of the DAAD Scholars Association of Kenya

Member of the Kenya Meteorological Association of Kenya

Member of the South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA).


Chair of the Awards Fund Committee of the International Biometric Society (IBS) Jan 2007 – Dec 2008

Scientific Advisory Board member - South African Centre for Epidemiologic Modeling and Analysis (SACEMA) 2005-2008

Bulletin Correspondent and Deputy Coordinator of SUSAN since 2001

International Programme Committee, International Biometric Conference (IBC) 2002 Freiburg, Germany & 2004

Cairns, Australia.

Awards Fund Committee (AFC) – International Biometric Society (IBS) since 2002 – 2007

Co-director pre-conference workshop (Theme: Enhanced Sampling and Analysis of Messy Data for Biometricians), Scientific Program Development, Co-organiser & Local Organizing Committee: SUSAN Conference (Theme: Poverty Alleviation Programmes in Africa): Pietermaritzburg, South Africa, 5-11 July, 2003.

Bulletin Correspondent and Organising Secretary of IBS Group Kenya: 1998 – 2001

Co-ordinator of the Nairobi Cluster Modelling Group (1998 – 2001).

Invited to chair several sessions in both International and local scientific conferences in statistics and biostatistics.


2006: Reviewed articles for the Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications.

2006: Reviewed a book in Biostatistics “A foundation for analysis in the health sciences” by Wiley.

2003. Reviewed articles for the Bulletin for Mathematical Biology (BMB)

2004. Reviewed articles for the J. Biological, Agricultural and Environmental Sciences (JABES)

2006: Co-editor of the Proceedings of the Sub-Saharan Network of the International Biometrics conference 2003 in

          Pietermaritzburg ,South Africa.

1997. Duchateau L. and H. G. Mwambi (Eds). Proceedings of the 5th Scientific Conference of the East, Southern and Central

          Africa Network of the IBS, 22-25 September 1997. (ILRI Press, ISBN 92-9146-026-5, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia)


 1.        Mwambi, H. G. and K. Zuma (2007). Mapping and modelling disease risk among mobile populations. Pp. 245 - 266 In: (Y. Apostolopoulos and S. Sonmez, eds.), Population Mobility and Infectious Disease.  Springer, New York .

 2.        Grobler, A. C., Carrara, H. R., Mwambi, H. G. and Parker, R. A. (2007). When to stop treatment arms in a clinical trial assessing time to event with more than two arms against a common control? Evaluation and the Health Professions, 30(3): 284 – 299.

 3.        Midega J.T., Charles C.M., Mwambi H.G., Wilson M. D., Ojwang, G.,  Mwangangi, J.M., Nzovu, J.G., Githure, J.I., Guiyan, Y., Beier, J.C. (2007). Estimating the dispersal and survival of Anopheles Gambiae and Anopheles funestus along the Kenyan coast using mark-release-recapture methods. Journal of Medical Entomology, 44(6): 923 – 929.

 4.        Depiney, J-M, C. M. Mbogo, G. Killen, B. Knolls, J. Beier, J. Carlson, J. Dushoff, P. Billingsley, H. Mwambi, J. Githure, A. M. Toure and F. E. Mckenzie (2004). A simulation model of the African Anopheles ecology and population dynamics for the analysis of malaria transmission. Malaria Journal, July 2004, 3-29 .

 5.        Mwangangi, J.M., C.M. Mbogo, J.G. Nzovu, E.W. Kabiru, H. Mwambi, J.I. Githure and J.C. Beier (2004). Relationship between body size of anopheles 
     mosquitoes and Plasmodium falciparum sporozite rates along the Kenya coast. Journal of Mosquito Control Association, 20(4): 394-394.
 6.          Mwambi, H.G. (2002). Ticks and tick-borne diseases in Africa: a disease transmission model. IMA Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and 
Biology, 29: 275 – 292.

 7.        Mwambi, H.G., J. Baumgaertner and K. P. Hadeler (2000). Ticks and tick-borne diseases: a vector-host interaction model for the brown ear tick (R. Appendiculatus). Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 9(3): 279 – 301.

 8.        Mwambi, H.G., J. Baumgaertner and K. P. Hadeler (2000). Development of a stage-structured analytic population model for strategic decision making: the case of ticks and tick-borne diseases. Rivista Di Mathematica Della Universita Di Parma, 6(3): 157 – 169.

 9.        Odhiambi, J.W. and Mwambi, H.G. (2000). The Role of Mathematical Modelling and Computing in Biomedical Research. In Proceedings of Carrier Improvement Workshop in Mathematics and Computer Science. Chiromo Campus, University of Nairobi, 27 Feb. – 4 March, 2000. Pp: 43 – 45.

 10.     Mwambi, H.G., J. W. Odhiambo and L. Duchateau (1997). Pp. 65 -71. A multiple matrix model for R. appendiculatus in Zimbabwe. In: ( H.G. Mwambi and L. Duchateau eds.) Proceedings of the Fifth Scientific Conference of the East, Central and Southern Africa network of the International Biometric Society (1997), Mombasa, Kenya.

 11.     Mwambi, H.G. (1998). Generalized Matrix and Compartmental Population Models. Doctorate Thesis, University of Nairobi, Kenya and International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Libraries.

 12.     Mwambi, H.G. (1989). A Regression Model with Indicator Variables to Asses Timber Quality in Kenya. Masters Project, University of Nairobi and  Kenya Forestry Research Institute Libraries.

 13.     Mwambi, H.G. (2000). Optimal health and environmental policies in a dynamical model for pollution: the case of a resource in a preserved area. In Proceedings of the Fifth Kenya Meteorological Workshop, Mombasa, Kenya, September 2000.

 14.     Mwambi, H.G., N. J. Muthama and R. Nguti (1998). Modelling environmental impact on health: Effects of weather on the prevalence of malaria and pneumonia in Kenya. In Proceedings of the Fourth Kenya Meteorological Society Workshop on Meteorological Research, Applications and Services, Mombasa, Kenya, Septemeber, 1998.


I have participated in several international biostatistics and modelling conferences particularly the Bi-annual International Biometric Conferences (IBCs). The latest one was held in Montreal Canada from 16th to 21st July 2006, IBC 2006. I have also attended several workshops and courses on biostatistics and modelling biological systems taught by internationally reputable biostatisticians and modellers. One such course was a biomathematics course (in Trieste, Italy) organised by Professor Simon A. Levin (of Princeton University, USA) together with other leading modellers in the world. Locally I have also participated in several workshops and conferences in the field of epidemiological modelling and biostatistics such as those by SACEMA and SASA (the South African Statistical Association).


 Honours Project

 1.        Ms. Thembelile Mzolo (2006). Using Ridge Regression to Handle Multicollinearty in Multiple Regression Models.

 2.        Ms. Werner (2005). Sample size calculation in clinical trials

 3.        Ms. Nonhlanhla Yende (2005). Analysis of repeated measurement in agroforestry: roots and competition data.   

 4.        Ms. Belinda Phimpson (2004). Application of log-linear models and categorical data analysis to quantify the importance of state transition variables in  ecology

 5.        Ms. Jolene Else (2002). Modelling Black Rhino Populations – 2nd South African Statistical Association sponsored by the Old Mutual Insurance Company.

 6.        Ms. Phathisani Ngulube (2007). Modelling complex longitudinal data in Clinical trials.

 Masters of Science (MSc)  

 1.        Mr. YG Habtesllassie. Group screening with imperfect testing (2004). Master of Science with distinction. University of KwaZulu-Natal.

 2.        Mr. IS Talke. Modelling volatility in time series data (2004). Master of Science with distinction. University of KwaZulu-Natal.

 3.        Ms. Belinda Phipson. Analysis of time-to-event data including frailty modelling (2006). University of KwaZulu-Natal.

 4.        Mr. Santosh Ramkisson. Modelling the interaction between human immunodeficiency virus, Mycobacterium tuberculosis and the human immune system, including the effects of drug therapy (2007). University of KwaZulu-Natal.

 Current Masters Students

 1.        Lise Werner (a Biostatistician in CAPRISA) – Joint Modelling of CD4+ and Viral Loads the two disease markers for  a cohort of  HIV-1 infected subjects from a CAPRISA study. Year of study - 2

 2.       Thembile Mzolo (Sponsored by SACEMA) – Modelling HIV current status data from a series of the HSRC household survey data. Year of study - 1

 3.       Nonhlanhla Yende (a Biostatistician in CAPRISA) -  Modelling the effect of ARV treatment and other covariates including unobserved heterogeneity in patients infected with HIV/AIDs (Data from CAPRISA).

 4.       Phathisani Ngulube – Modelling recurrent events in survival analysis.  

 5.       Ronel Sewpaul – Estimating HIV incidence from serial sero-prevalence data

 6.       Amos Chinamona – Application of time series to infectious disease modelling     

 Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 

  1. Mr. Shaun Ramroop. Current PhD student (registered in 2003) working on modelling repeated measurements data over time for

a respiratory disease process for children under the age of one year along the Kenyan coast. Methods of analysis: Conditional

models (observation-driven), transition models, random effects models, survival analysis and missing data approaches to be


    2.       Ms.  Makhala Khoeli. Statistical Modelling of cropping systems of supply of food cereals Lesotho.  

    3.       Adam Gesafi – Multivariate Longitudinal Data Modelling With Applications

    4.       Lesego Gabaitiri – Inteval Censored Data With Application to HIV Data in Botswana


 CAPRISA:- Initiated collaborative research with the Centre for Aids Programme Research in South Africa (CAPRISA) in 2004 to enhance training in biostatistics and research. My current activities with CAPRISA are:  

 1. Developing a statistical model to estimate HIV incidence from serial prevalence data.

 2. Joint Modelling HIV/AIDS Disease Markers (Masters Project with Lise Werner – a Biostatistician and former student)

 3. Modelling the effect of ARV treatment and other covariates including unobserved heterogeneity in patients infected with

    HIV/AIDS (Masters Project with Nonhlanhla Yende – a Biostatistician and former student)  

 HSRC:- Joint collaborative work with Dr Khangelani Zuma a Biostatistician and epidemiologist at the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) in Pretoria. We are jointly supervising a Masters student Thembile Mozolo (sponsored by SACEMA to model HIV data from a series of HSRC household survey data)

 SACEMA:- South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling. Supervision of SACEMA sponsored MSc. students working on topics in infectious disease modelling. I have also been a member of SACEMA’s scientific advisory committee until 2007.

 Kenya Medical Research – KEMRI (Kilifi, Kenya):- Collaborating with two entomologists, Charles Mbogo and Janet Midega on statistical and mathematical modelling of malaria and other mosquito-borne diseases along the Kenyan coast.

 Hasselt University, Belgium:- Collaborating with Ziv Shkedy and Geert Molenberghs on infectious diseases modelling and biostatistics training.